|NRG ENERGY, INC. filed this Form 10-K on 03/01/2018|
Item 7A — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
NRG is exposed to several market risks in the Company's normal business activities. Market risk is the potential loss that may result from market changes associated with the Company's merchant power generation or with an existing or forecasted financial or commodity transaction. The types of market risks the Company is exposed to are commodity price risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, credit risk and currency exchange risk. In order to manage these risks, the Company uses various fixed-price forward purchase and sales contracts, futures and option contracts traded on NYMEX, and swaps and options traded in the over-the-counter financial markets to:
Commodity Price Risk
Commodity price risks result from exposures to changes in spot prices, forward prices, volatilities, and correlations between various commodities, such as natural gas, electricity, coal, oil, and emissions credits. NRG manages the commodity price risk of the Company's merchant generation operations and load serving obligations by entering into various derivative or non-derivative instruments to hedge the variability in future cash flows from forecasted sales and purchases of electricity and fuel. These instruments include forwards, futures, swaps, and option contracts traded on various exchanges, such as NYMEX and ICE, as well as over-the-counter markets. The portion of forecasted transactions hedged may vary based upon management's assessment of market, weather, operation and other factors.
While some of the contracts the Company uses to manage risk represent commodities or instruments for which prices are available from external sources, other commodities and certain contracts are not actively traded and are valued using other pricing sources and modeling techniques to determine expected future market prices, contract quantities, or both. NRG uses the Company's best estimates to determine the fair value of those derivative contracts. However, it is likely that future market prices could vary from those used in recording mark-to-market derivative instrument valuation and such variations could be material.
NRG measures the risk of the Company's portfolio using several analytical methods, including sensitivity tests, scenario tests, stress tests, position reports, and VaR. NRG uses a Monte Carlo simulation based VaR model to estimate the potential loss in the fair value of the Company's energy assets and liabilities, which includes generation assets, load obligations, and bilateral physical and financial transactions. The key assumptions for the Company's VaR model include: (i) lognormal distribution of prices; (ii) one-day holding period; (iii) 95% confidence interval; (iv) rolling 36-month forward looking period; and (v) market implied volatilities and historical price correlations.
As of December 31, 2017, the VaR for NRG's commodity portfolio, including generation assets, load obligations and bilateral physical and financial transactions calculated using the VaR model was $46 million.
The following table summarizes average, maximum and minimum VaR for NRG for the years ended December 31, 2017 and 2016:
Due to the inherent limitations of statistical measures such as VaR, the evolving nature of the competitive markets for electricity and related derivatives, and the seasonality of changes in market prices, the VaR calculation may not capture the full extent of commodity price exposure. As a result, actual changes in the fair value of mark-to-market energy assets and liabilities could differ from the calculated VaR, and such changes could have a material impact on the Company's financial results.
In order to provide additional information, the Company also uses VaR to estimate the potential loss of derivative financial instruments that are subject to mark-to-market accounting. These derivative instruments include transactions that were entered into for both asset management and trading purposes. The VaR for the derivative financial instruments calculated using the diversified VaR model for the entire term of these instruments entered into for both asset management and trading was $30 million as of December 31, 2017, primarily driven by asset-backed transactions.